THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 23RD JULY 2014 – US INFLATION STILL SUBDUED, EQUITIES AND AUD ADVANCE

Overnight we saw the release of the latest round of U.S CPI with the figure proving inflation is still very subdued and therefore unlikely to result in any significant policy change from the Federal Reserve. It’s not surprising then that we saw investors pile into U.S equities over night and AUD/USD rise to 0.9420 following the release.

Why did investors pile into U.S equities? Because low inflation means a low cash rate, which means cheap money which is good for business.

AUD Exchange Rates Today:

AUD/USD – 0.9390

AUD/EUR – 0.6971

AUD/GBP – 0.5501

AUD/NZD – 1.0821

AUD/JPY – 95.26

Economic Data Releases Today:

AUD CPI (inflation) is released at 11.30 AM AEST this morning so expect a degree of volatility leading into the number. Economists have predicted a slight reduction in quarterly CPI to 0.5%, down from 0.6% in the previous quarter.

Will we see AUD/USD finally break it’s range?

Those with exposures to GBP should note that the Bank Of England (BOE) meet tonight to determine the official cash rate followed closely by a speech from BOE Governor Carney.

Have a good day.

Patrick D

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

Compass Global Markets

patrick@compassmarkets.com

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 22ND JULY 2014 – EQUITIES FALL AS U.S PUSHS FOR EU SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA

The Aussie is off against the Greenback and Euro following a weak lead from U.S equities and ahead of RBA governor Glenn Stevens speech at 1 pm. Risk trades were well and truly off the table over night as MH17 continues to dominate news headlines and with President Obama pushing the EU to impose tough new sanctions on Putin’s Russia. It would appear now we’re heading towards a fork in the road where Putin will either succumb to global pressure or embolden further which could see increased fear of a new cold war. Obviously the latter wouldn’t be ideal and would likely drive the AUD lower.

AUD Exchange Rates Today:

AUD/USD – 0.9366

AUD/EUR – 0.6924

AUD/GBP – 0.5485

AUD/NZD – 1.0779

AUD/JPY – 94.963

Economic Data Releases Today:

As mentioned above we’ll see Governor Stevens speech at 1 pm. Keep an ear out for any deviation from his recent rhetoric and whether there is any mention of the AUD at current levels. Last time Stevens spoke about the AUD being too high it invariably fell. This could present a great opportunity for Exporters looking to buy AUD with their foreign currency.

Later this evening we’ll see U.S CPI and Existing Home Sales.

Have a good day.

Patrick D

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

patrick@compassmarkets.com

Compass Global Markets

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 21ST JULY 2014 – UKRAINE & GAZA DOMINATE NEWS

The world seems to have got a lot nastier in the past week or so with Israel’s invasion of Gaza which has so far killed 430 Palestinians and Pro-Russian rebels shooting down of MH17. But despite the swathe of bad news and global unrest currency markets remain unusually subdued. The calm before the storm? Who knows?

Aussie crosses have barely moved this morning and so you get the impression most traders and investors are simply sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens next.

AUD Exchange Rates Today

AUD/USD – 0.9397

AUD/EUR – 0.6944

AUD/GBP – 0.5449

AUD/NZD – 1.0798

AUD/JPY – 95.24

AUD/CNY – 5.8302

Economic Data Releases This Week

If you don’t live in New Zealand or the U.K where the respective Reserve Banks are set to determine the official cash rate on Wednesday then very little is happening this week in terms of economic data.

Patrick

patrick@compassmarkets.com

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

Compass Global Markets

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 18TH JULY 2014 – MH17 SHOT DOWN BY PRO-RUSSIAN REBELS & SANCTIONS PUSH RUSSIA TOWARDS RECESSION

A very sad day for Australia and the other nations who have lost citizens as a result of MH17 being shot down over Ukraine by what is appearing more and more likely to be from a Russian rocket supplied to pro Russian rebels. If Putin and Russia weren’t already feeling the squeeze over crippling sanctions which are destined to send the nation into recession then they certainly will be now. Russian bonds, stocks and the ruble have been getting hammered this month and since Russia annexed Crimea.

The unrest in Eastern Europe and the most recent turmoil has seen the Aussie dollar drop against most of the majors. As the story develops and fears of a new cold war rise expect continued volatility and the unexpected.

Exchange Rates Today:

AUD/USD – 0.9340

AUD/EUR – 0.6911

AUD/GBP – 0.5465

AUD/JPY – 94.51

AUD/CNY – 5.7956

Data Releases Today:

Overnight U.S building permits were released slightly below expectations but still solid at around 1M new permits for the most recent reading.

Ahead we have Canadian CPI which will be published around 10.30pm AEST.

Have a good day.

Patrick

patrick@compassmarkets.com

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

Compass Global Markets

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 17TH JULY 2014 – UK EMPLOYMENT STRONG & NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA

Australia’s Richie Porte is in second place in the overall standings at the Tour de France and is looming as somewhat of a dark horse for the overall lead. Across the Channel we had UK employment data overnight which again showed improvement with UK’s unemployment figure now at 6.5% and in stark contrast to the 8.4% figure we saw in the first quarter of 2012.

What does strong UK Employment mean for AUD/GBP? The simple answer is yet more declines, from a high of 0.6925 in 2013 AUD/GBP has steadily declined to the mid 54′s and we could see the trend continue with strong job numbers and retail sales.

Exchange Rates Today:

AUD/USD – 0.9367

AUD/EUR – 0.6924

AUD/GBP – 0.5465

AUD/JPY – 95.2367

AUD/CNY – 5.8113

In the US – Obama has slapped fresh sanctions on Russia as Putin continues to build his forces on the border of Ukraine where something like 12,000 troops are now positioned.

Data Releases Today:

Data releases today are limited with only the CB Leading Index - This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.

Have a great day.

Patrick

patrick@compassmarkets.com

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

Compass Global Markets

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 16TH JULY 2014 – US RETAIL SALES WEAK & CHINESE GDP RELEASED AT NOON

U.S retail sales were released overnight along with German economic sentiment – both sets of data were released far below expectations but did little to impact on the respective AUD crosses with AUD rates still hovering in much the same range as they have been for the past few weeks.

More importantly and closer to home we see Chinese GDP at noon AEST. As we all know Chinese data is the data that seems to impact the Aussie crosses most at this time so expect increased volatility as we get closer to noon. The latest GDP figure is tipped to come in at 7.4% but please do be cautious particularly if you have pressing payments to make today.

A figure well below expectations could see a sharp drop in the Aussie crosses – so for strategies to protect your costings or to lock in a rate today for future payments please contact me.

AUD Rates:

AUD/USD – 0.9374

AUD/EUR – 0.6907

AUD/GBP – 0.5467

AUD/JPY – 95.29

AUD/CNY – 5.7773

Have a good day and don’t forget – if you’re an importer or exporter looking for better rates and a substantial saving on your international payments or receivables please get in touch. We can also help with hedging and risk management relating to your foreign exchange exposures.

Patrick Downes

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

Compass Global Markets

Melbourne, Australia

Contact me: patrick@compassmarkets.com

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 15TH JULY 2014 – ECB 1 TRILLION HAND OUT & RBA MINUTES RELEASED TODAY

Bloomberg has this morning led with the headline that participants in the stock market particularly in the U.S seem to be heading in two different directions. While on one hand we have professional investors calling the market overheated and looking to take profits OUT while individuals or ‘punters’ are piling INTO U.S equities.  Probably not a concern for us in Australia – at least at this point – but something to be wary of as typically the AUD’s direction takes the lead from U.S and European stocks, news and economic data.

In Europe ECB President Draghi has made it clear in his speech overnight that he intends to keep rates low and provide yet more stimulus to fund lending to business and consumers - this time to the tune of an additional 1 TRILLION Euro’s.

Bloomberg quoted Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Merrion Capital in Dublin – “the take-up should be large — the money is cheap and banks should feel no stigma about accepting a free lunch.”

Economic data released today includes AU New Motor Vehicle sales at 11.30am AEST, along with Minutes from both the RBA and BOJ’s recent Monetary Policy meetings. Later on this evening we see European Economic sentiment and US Retail Sales.

AUD Rates:

AUD/USD – 0.9392

AUD/EUR – 0.6895

AUD/GBP – 0.5463

AUD/JPY – 95.37

AUD/CNY – 5.7932

Have a good day and don’t forget – if you’re an importer or exporter looking for better rates and a substantial saving on your international payments shoot me an email. More than happy to help.

Patrick Downes

Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer

Compass Global Markets

Melbourne, Australia

Contact me: patrick@compassmarkets.com

 

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Foreign Exchange Rates Comparison – Recent Case Study

I want to keep this post short and to the point.

The easiest way to determine if I can assist your business is really quite simple. And the answer is – A foreign exchange rate comparison.

When speaking with prospective clients (typically importers and exporters) I find the easiest way to determine whether there is a net benefit for the client in dealing with me, is via a foreign exchange rate comparison. The reason for this is two fold – one it involves the client in the process and two it displays the net saving on a particular international payment which can later be extrapolated out to cover the clients foreign exchange exposures over the course of a whole year.

The last foreign exchange rate comparison I did was with an importer who had a 50K EUR exposure. The saving on this international payment alone was 804AUD. Fact.

Typically clients dealing with the major banks like ANZ, WESTPAC, CBA or NAB are the clients most likely to benefit. So if you have a business or need to send or receive funds from overseas – please get in touch so I can assist with your international payments.  You stand only to gain from the process.

Patrick

patrick@compassmarkets.com

 

 

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THE EXCHANGE RATE TODAY – 14TH JULY 2014 – GERMANY WIN WORLD CUP & TAKE STAGE 9 OF THE TOUR

A weekend full of sporting highlights has passed but as we take a look back it was all about Germany and its sporting prowess. Germany took out the 2014 World Cup via a stunning strike in extra-time from Mario Götze, while Germany’s Tony Martin claimed victory in Stage 9 of the Tour de France.

Unfortunately the prowess we saw in the sporting arena didn’t translate in the economic arena for Germany with some very subdued data released Friday evening. Germany’s CPI was flat and construction output contracted 1.1% despite economists forecasts of a solid 0.8% growth number.

A quiet day today in terms of economic data – so we should see little move in the Aussie crosses, but with a speech from ECB President Draghi tomorrow morning followed by the minutes from the latest RBA meeting expect volatility to kick off at 11:30am AEST tomorrow morning.

If you’re an Aussie Importer or Exporter with foreign currency exposures please contact me for a discussion on how we can improve your exchange rate today!

patrick@compassmarkets.com

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The Exchange Rate Today – 11th July 2014 – Stock’s Slide & China Dirty Money Allegations

It’s been somewhat of a hiatus since the last time I posted a ‘The Exchange Rate Today’ type article – just over two years ago. A lot has changed since then, but indeed also alot hasn’t changed since then.

It’s interesting to see that debt crisis concerns in Europe are still lingering with Portugal front page news today with “increasing concern over signs of financial stress” while the U.S cash rate is still anchored at 0.25%.

For the Aussie dollar alot has certainly changed – Importers were quite literally living the dream in July 2012 with historically high rates, while exporters were willing and hoping to see the Aussie lower.

A quick snapshot of rates today and back in July 2012.

AUD Crosses – July 2012:

AUD/USD – 1.0250

AUD/EUR – 0.8373

AUD/GBP – 0.6611

AUD Crosses – July 2014

AUD/USD – 0.9391

AUD/EUR – 0.6902

AUD/GBP – 0.5482

There’s no real news to talk about today other than stock’s will likely fall off a weak lead from Wall Street while allegations of China’s involvement in money laundering seems to be something the press is all over.

If you’re an Australia based importer or exporter and would like a competitive rate on your next international funds transfer send me an email: patrick@compassmarkets.com

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